Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: With high hopes, US President Donald Trump met his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Alaska on August 15, but failed to elicit any response on how to close the ongoing war in Ukraine since February 24, 2022. Trump then announced another summit with Putin in Hungary, and soon cancelled it, saying a meeting without an expected outcome was meaningless.
The US President, who has been claiming ‘expertise’ in pushing warring countries into ceasefires—if not peace—has ‘admitted’ that Putin is a hard nut to crack. That is why he is cautious this time.
Who created the latest proposed 28-point “peace plan,” later trimmed to 19 points? Is Trump going to meet Putin in Abu Dhabi, after all, as the media reported?
Earlier, the Ukraine peace plan was reported to have been drafted by US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, over the weekend. But, then, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio claimed that the plan was drawn up by the White House, “with inputs from Russia and Ukraine.”
Initially, Ukraine almost rejected it and Europe sought guarantees from both the US and Russia, even showing readiness to continue to fund and muscle up Kiev to keep fighting.
The fast-changing geodynamics, and the US-China ‘bipolarity’—G-2, as Trump put it—may have caused a rethink in Ukraine and Russia. Amid revived tensions with Japan on Taiwan, China is keeping the US in good humour, with Russia keenly watching what Beijing does to Taipei.
So far, according to reports, Ukraine has agreed to the broad outline of a proposed peace deal aimed at ending the war with Russia. While confirming progress, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also stressed that several sensitive points remain unresolved.
Ukraine’s National Security Secretary Rustem Umerov said that both sides had “reached a common understanding on the core terms of the agreement discussed in Geneva,” that Kyiv expected European backing for the next phase, and hoped to finalise matters during a planned visit by Zelenskyy to the US to “complete final steps” with President Trump, the media reported on Wednesday.
However, Zelenskyy said on Tuesday that while there were “solid results” from Geneva, “much work still lies ahead.”
On its part, Ukraine is unlikely to accept ‘suicidal conditions’ in the peace plan, such as limiting its armed forces from 2 million now to just about 600,000, dropping its long-term plans to join NATO and EU, and ceding certain sensitive territories demanded by Russia, despite ‘security guarantees’ by the US.
One major sticky point in the peace plan calls on Ukraine to give up key parts of the Donbas region — areas Russia claims to have annexed, although it does not fully control them. Zelenskyy has rejected surrendering eastern Donbas, especially in exchange for control over sections of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia currently held by Russian forces.
Ukraine on Tuesday supported essence of the agreement but said that final decisions must be taken at a meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump. While negotiators from the US and Ukraine met in Geneva on Sunday, Kyiv said that they are narrowing gaps with Washington but still resisting parts of the plan that align with Kremlin objectives.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow may reject any amended plan if it strays from what was discussed during the Trump-Putin Summit in Alaska in August. He said Moscow is waiting for the US to provide what it considers an interim version of the text, particularly as Washington coordinates with Europeans and Ukrainians.
Russian officials also insisted the deal must not undermine Moscow’s strategic goals, one of which is securing territorial recognition in eastern Ukraine.
The US has intensified diplomatic activity, with Daniel Driscoll meeting Russian officials in Abu Dhabi and Trump announcing he is sending envoy Steve Witkoff to meet Putin. The US President said the peace proposal is evolving, describing the 28-point document “a concept.” He hinted at the possibility of meeting both Putin and Zelenskyy later.
Trump also suggested Ukraine ceding territory was inevitable, “So eventually that’s land that over the next couple of months might be gotten by Russia anyway,” Trump said.
However, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that Ukraine’s borders “cannot be changed by force”. She cautioned against any agreement that weakens Ukraine’s defence or restricts its future.
She also said that Ukraine must retain freedom over its strategic choices and its “European destiny”, which includes reconstruction and integration with EU defence and economic structures.
France and the UK, which are part of a coalition liaising on security guarantees, said momentum is visible but acknowledged that the talks are at a “crucial” stage.
Despite negotiators’ meeting, Russia launched overnight attacks on Kyiv that killed at least seven people. Ukraine also struck targets in southern Russia, including an oil refinery and drone facility.