Manas Dasgupta
NEW DELHI, Oct 9: Already battling against the anti-incumbency factor, the death of the union minister for consumer affairs, food and public distribution Ram Vilas Paswan is likely to put the Bihar ruling party JD(U) in a tighter position in the elections to the state Assembly beginning later this month.
Paswan, the 74-year old dalit leader from Bihar, who was admitted in a private hospital in Delhi about a fortnight ago and had undergone a heart surgery last week, died on Thursday evening, four days after his son Chirag Paswan, the national president of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) founded by his father, announced the party’s decision to quit the NDA and go it alone in the Bihar elections virtually registering a revolt against the JD(U) and chief minister Nitish Kumar.
At its meeting on Friday, the union cabinet, which decided to accord a state funeral to the departed minister, adopted a condolence resolution expressing its deep grief and said in his passing away, “the nation has lost an eminent leader, a distinguished parliamentarian and an able administrator.” Paswan, it said, “was the voice of the oppressed and always championed the cause of marginalized sections of the society.”
Declaring a day’s national mourning, the centre has also decided that the National Flag will be flown at half-mast in Delhi and the Capitals of all States and Union Territories where it is regularly flown, on Friday and on the day of the funeral, at the place where the funeral takes place. The date, time and venue of the funeral will be intimated later.
Deeply mourning the demise of his cabinet colleague, the prime minister Narendra Modi in a series of tweets said, “I am saddened beyond words. There is a void in our nation that will perhaps never be filled. Shri Ram Vilas Paswan Ji’s demise is a personal loss. I have lost a friend, valued colleague and someone who was extremely passionate to ensure every poor person leads a life of dignity.
“Shri Ram Vilas Paswan Ji rose in politics through hard work and determination. As a young leader, he resisted tyranny and the assault on our democracy during the Emergency. He was an outstanding Parliamentarian and Minister, making lasting contributions in several policy areas.
“Working together, shoulder to shoulder with Paswan Ji has been an incredible experience. His interventions during Cabinet Meetings were insightful. From political wisdom, statesmanship to governance issues, he was brilliant. Condolences to his family and supporters. Om Shanti,” Modi tweeted.
Considered the sole leader of dalits in Bihar, particularly among the sizeable “Paswan” voters and also having strong footing among the upper castes, Ram Vilas Paswan’s death in all likelihood will generate a strong sympathy wave directly affecting the JD(U) as well as the Rashtriya Janata Dal – Congress alliance fortunes while benefitting the BJP.
When the LJP felt headless on senior Paswan being admitted in the hospital with multiple complications at a time when the party was in the midst of hard bargaining within the NDA structure, Ram Vilas through a number of tweets had conveyed to his partymen and the people of Bihar that he would stand by the decisions his son took on the political future of the party. It was a strong signal from the LJP patriarch that put to rest all speculation about whether he was uneasy over his son Chirag’s aggressive posturing against Nitish Kumar. Chirag’s decision to quit the NDA and plans to set up candidates against the JD(U) while sparing its alliance partner BJP, apparently had blessings of his father.
In his death, the ruling JD(U) has lost a major stick to beat the LJP with by accusing it of ganging up with other opposition parties to stall Narendra Modi – Nitish Kumar march for the Bihar development. Instead its leaders and workers will have to be doubly cautious to ensure that they did not say anything that could boomerang on the party.
The pre-election scenario in Bihar was so far projected as JD(U)’s loss due to the anti-incumbency factor would be the RJD-Congress alliance gain. But the death of senior Paswan has changed the equation, it is now likely to be JD(U) loss is LJP’s gains. The LJP which has decided to contest at least 143 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly could emerge the single largest or the second largest party and neither the LJP nor the BJP would have any qualms to join hands to form the next government dumping the JD(U). The BJP so far has handled Chirag Paswan with kid gloves even as he has walked out of the NDA openly took on Nitish Kumar, except reiterating its earlier stand that Nitish remained the NDA’s chief ministerial face.
As for Chirag, who has taken a leap of faith by fighting the elections alone, his father’s death leaves him in an extremely delicate position. A few days before senior Paswan’s death, a senior LJP leader had described the father-son’s politics as complementing each other. “Even though he is unwell, the mere presence of Ram Vilasji reassures the Dalit voter, especially the Dusadh (Paswans). He won his first election in 1969. Since then, he has always been a man of the people, making phone calls, keeping old relationships. The way he talked, or carried himself never changed. He is the tallest Paswan leader ever. His son Chirag is the boy who went to Bollywood, but now is creating his own space. He speaks English well, and can pull in the youth and is positioning himself as such. They complement each other,” the senior leader had said.
But now with the one pillar of the LJP structure gone, the question asked is whether the junior Paswan would be able to pull the entire support base with him. When Chirag hits the campaign run, emotions will inevitably run high. While it remains to be seen whether the sympathy factor translate into votes for the LJP, Paswan’s death may win over some who may have been put off by Chirag’s man-in-a-hurry attitude.
A senior JD(U) leader admitted that Paswan’s death had left all of Bihar, even his political opponents, in grief. “That is how big he was. Paswan did not put off anyone. His death will have no effect on the votes that the LJP wanted from anti-incumbency. But the question is of the core Dalit voter. There are two possibilities. One, they may rally behind his son who clearly was his chosen one. But there is also the question that Chirag is a two-time MP, less grounded among people, a big city boy. Will the core Dalit voter trust him? Which of these two scenarios play out will be crucial for the LJP’s fortunes,” he said.
There was never, however, any doubt in senior Paswan’s mind over Chirag being his political heir. He has always played the indulgent father as his son spoke of rebooting LJP’s politics. Paswan had proudly claimed that the LJP’s Anglicised political slogan, “Bihar First, Bihari First”, was Chirag’s idea.
In fact, Paswan had started transferring power to his son soon after the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. After the LJP won six of the seven seats it contested that election, he had made Chirag chairman of the party’s parliamentary board. A few months ago, Chirag took over as the party’s national president. Whenever the media asked the father-son duo if Chirag hoped to become Bihar CM someday, it would always be the father who answered with a straightforward “yes.”