Virendra Pandit
New Delhi: There is no reason to be complacent that Omicron is less virulent than its predecessor Delta. For, its successor variant could be more virulent, a leading microbiologist of Indian origin has warned.
Another expert has said this pandemic may never go away and more variants may come in 2022.
According to Dr. Amita Gupta, faculty co-chair of the Johns Hopkins India Institute and a Professor of Infectious Diseases, the year 2022 could be more of the same. Covid-19 should be seen as a wake-up call to improve things, the media quoted her as saying.
Ravindra Gupta, Professor of Clinical Microbiology at the Cambridge Institute for Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Diseases (CITIID), observed that the reduced severity of Omicron results from an ‘evolutionary mistake’ as the pandemic is transmitting efficiently. There is no reason for it to become milder, showing that the next variant could be more virulent.
Dr. Gupta, who led a recent study on the Omicron variant, said the assumption that viruses become more benign over time is wrong in this case as we base these assumptions on long-term evolutionary trends, the media reported.
This virus, SARS-CoV-2 (causing Covid-19) does not have that issue because it is transmitting efficiently. It doesn’t have any reason to become milder, especially as we have many susceptible hosts amid vaccination drives. “I think it’s an evolutionary mistake. It’s not something intentional that the virus is trying to do to change its biology,” he explained, showing that it might ‘correct mistake’ in the next strain.
Dr. Gupta was among the first globally to describe the changed fusion mechanism of cells at play, which might make Omicron more visible to the body’s immune defenses. While the study showed that the new variant, dominant in the UK, USA, and elsewhere and sweeping India, is infecting the cells found in the lungs less, the virus itself is not intending to become milder.
“This finding of reduced severity of Omicron is obviously good news for now, but the next variant that comes, and there will be one, will not have these characteristics and could be back to the severity that we have seen before. I think it probably will.”
To think that Omicron could be a natural vaccine is wrong, he said, advocating increased vaccination to block infection. “We don’t understand the complete implications of different variants on our health”, he said.
Dr. Gupta, who is on the UK government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) and New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG), said keeping up the vaccination drive as a pre-emptive action is important because that remains “our first line of defense” against the virus.
In India, the virulence of Delta infections in 2020 provided some immunity. The vaccines have been rolled out effectively. “We know that Omicron can escape vaccines and a third dose boosting is essential.”
His team is now focusing on studying why Omicron’s’ ‘evolutionary mistake’ occurred.
A record 9.5 million new Covid-19 cases were reported around the world during the week of December 27-January 2. The number of recent cases increased sharply by 71 percent as compared to the previous week.
In Geneva, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus also cautioned that while the Omicron variant appears to be less severe compared to Delta, especially in those vaccinated, it does not mean we should categorize it as mild. Just like previous variants, Omicron is hospitalizing and killing people.
“In fact, the tsunami of cases is so huge and quick, that it is overwhelming health systems around the world,” he said.
Hospitals are becoming overcrowded and understaffed, which further results in preventable deaths from not only Covid-19 but other diseases and injuries where patients cannot receive timely care, he added.