Manas Dasgupta
NEW DELHI, May 23: In less than two years after forming the party Tmilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the actor-turned-politician C Joseph Vijay has become the chief minister of Tamil Nadu and now in less than a month of coming to power, the TVK is looking forward to its maiden presence in the Rajya Sabha.
The Election Commission has officially confirmed that polling for 26 seats in the Rajya Sabha across 12 states will be held on June 18 which will include two by-elections of one seat each in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, for two years. Several MPs are nearing the completion of their terms; including the former prime minister Deve Gowda, Congress leader Digvijaya Singh, and two Union ministers – Ravneet Singh Bittu and George Kurian.
Among the states where elections are to be held, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka will vote for four seats each; Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan for three seats each, and Jharkhand for two seats and Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh have one seat each.
Of the 26 retiring members, the NDA holds 18 seats, the Congress 4, YSR Congress 3 and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha one.
In Maharashtra, the seat fell vacant following the resignation of Deputy Chief Minister Sunetra Pawar, who has since been elected to the State Assembly, while in Tamil Nadu AIADMK’s C. V. Shanmugam, who became an MLA, resigned from the seat.
However, following the elections, the NDA is projected to lose one seat, bringing the tally down to 17, while the Congress’s count is expected to rise from 4 to 5. Concurrently, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha is set to secure two seats. The TVK is set to win the by-election and make maiden entry into the upper house, unless it concede the seat to the Congress or any of its other allies as is being speculated. In Maharashtra, the byelection for the seat is likely to go to the Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
Currently, out of the 244 seats in the Rajya Sabha, the NDA holds 149, while the Opposition holds 78 seats. There are also 17 seats held by parties that are aligned with neither the NDA nor the Opposition bloc INDIA. Following the DMK’s withdrawal from the INDIA alliance, these figures may undergo further realignment. Of the four seats in Karnataka, three are expected to go to the Congress and one to the BJP.
In both Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan- each having three seats – two seats apiece are projected to go to the BJP, while one each will fall to the Congress. Similarly, the BJP is poised to win all four seats in Gujarat; this would mark the first time that the Congress will have no MP representing Gujarat in the Rajya Sabha, whereas in Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party is set to win all four seats.
In Jharkhand, the alliance between the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the Congress is expected to win both seats; according to Congress sources, the party may request one of these seats from Chief Minister Hemant Soren. An MP from another state, whose term is drawing to a close, is also said to be interested in entering the Rajya Sabha from Jharkhand.
The BJP could potentially field its own candidate in Jharkhand to create difficulties for the JMM-Congress alliance through cross-voting, much as they did in Bihar. The BJP needs to secure seats for two of its ministers – Ravneet Singh Bittu and George Kurian. The BJP will undoubtedly want to bring Bittu into the Rajya Sabha, given that assembly elections are scheduled to take place in Punjab next year.
While it is all but certain that Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge will enter the Rajya Sabha from Karnataka, there is intense speculation regarding Kamal Nath’s nomination from Madhya Pradesh. The biggest question remains whether the BJP will extend its support to former Deve Gowda for a Rajya Sabha seat from Karnataka, or if it will field its own candidate, since the BJP is in a position to secure only one seat from the state.
One seat each in Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Mizoram will also go to polls on June 18. The BJP is expected to retain the seats held by Maharaja Sanajaoba Leishemba in Manipur and Nabam Rebia in Arunachal Pradesh. The National People’s Party (NPP) is likely to retain Wanweiroy Kharlukhi’s seat in Meghalaya, while in Mizoram, the Mizo National Front (MNF) may lose its seat— currently represented by K. Vanlalvena — to the ruling Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM).