Manas Dasgupta
NEW DELHI, July 31: The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has virtually split into two with the camp led by the former Chief Minister and former coordinator of O. Panneerselvam quitting the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with which the party chief Edappadi K Palaniswami had revived BJP ties before the election.
The stand taken by Mr Panneerselvam, OPS as he is fondly called by his supporters, may also hit the BJP’s Tamil Nadu election plans next year with the powerful Thevar community votes likely to be taken away from the NDA.
The announcement by the OPS group followed Mr Panneerselvam meeting the Chief Minister and DMK president M.K. Stalin at the Theosophical Society where the latter routinely goes for a walk, in the morning and followed it up with another meeting at Mr Stalin’s residence where his son and deputy chief minister Udhaynidhi Stalin was also present.
Emerging from a three-hour-long meeting of Mr Panneerselvam with his colleagues and supporters, Panruti S Ramachandran, a former Minister who has been acting as an advisor of the camp, told journalists in Chennai there was no need for him to state the reason explicitly. “The State knows it,” Mr Ramachandran observed.
OPS was reportedly miffed at being excluded from meeting the Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit earlier this week. He was also excluded from the guest list when Home Minister Amit Shah visited. The ex-Chief Minister’s future plans would be announced shortly, Mr Ramachandran said. “… a right alliance to lead the people in the right direction will materialise in the future.” For now, he also said, OPS will travel the state ahead of the 2026 Assembly election.
There was plenty of buzz after OPS met Mr Stalin but the meeting was played down as a chance encounter during a morning constitutional while the was said to be for OPS to inquire about the Chief Minister’s health as he was released from a city hospital earlier this week after undergoing a “therapeutic procedure” for “variations in heart rate.” A video shared by the DMK showed them chatting amiably.
But an alliance with the DMK could be problematic given OPS is seen as the ‘true heir’ of AIADMK icon and ex-Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa, who hand-picked him as her stand-in when she had to step down. Joining hands with her arch-rivals will anger his supporters.
He could contest next year’s election solo. But recent solo results have been a disaster. Nevertheless, by going on his own he will split votes from the Thevar community and dent the AIADMK’s prospects. He will also almost certainly not win enough seats to form the government, but could win enough, backed by the Thevar voters, to become a ‘kingmaker’ and secure his own political future.
Or he could patch up with the BJP and return to the NDA fold. The BJP and he were allies for the 2024 Lok Sabha poll; this was when the AIADMK itself had split from the national party. However, any return will hinge on AIADMK boss Palaniswami’s nod, which is unlikely.
Despite being sidelined in state politics over the past few years, Mr Panneerselvam still has a large support base and the trust of a section of the AIADMK’s on-ground workers. A three-time MLA from Bodinayakkanur in Theni district, OPS is a big name among the Thevar, or Mukkulathor, community that accounts for 10-12 per cent of the state’s population.
In the 2021 election a majority of the Thevar vote – around 55 per cent – went to the AIADMK. But it was still beaten; the party won only 75 seats (136 in 2016) to the DMK’s 159 (up from 98).
A chunk of those – 44 – came from western Tamil Nadu; the shift in the Gounder community vote was critical to these victories. But a sizeable number – 15 – came from the south. Losing, potentially, OPS’ support could dent chances for the BJP (and its on-again allies, the AIADMK) to finally do what it has traditionally struggled to – crack the Tamil voter conundrum.
OPS going it alone will certainly split the Thevar community vote in the south and, possibly, those from other communities that usually vote for the AIADMK. Ideally the BJP – which has insisted it will stay out of its ally’s internal leadership problems – would like to retain the support of the AIADMK as a whole, i.e., OPS and EPS. That, however, may not work out.
Expressing hope that the “right alliance” would be formed in future and his camp’s decision would be based upon such development, the Mr Ramachandran said “as of now, there is no relationship with any party.”
On the camp’s position in ensuring the defeat of the DMK at the hustings, Mr Ramachandran said, “our objective is not negative. We are not interested in pulling down anyone. But, we are interested in the welfare and prosperity of all. We are keen on making people victorious.” Mr Panneerselvam, who was present with Mr Ramachandran during the press interaction, clarified about his meeting with Chief Minister M.K. Stalin earlier in the day. “When I am in Chennai, I ordinarily go to the Theosophical Society for morning walk. This was how I met him and greeted him.”