Manas Dasgupta
NEW DELHI, Apr 3: Even as the opposition parties are trying to come on one platform against the BJP ahead of the 2024 Parliamentary elections, rift within the Karnataka Congress may come in the way of defeating the BJP despite the party facing anti-incumbency factor in the state going to the polls next month.
The need for a caste census was underscored by most Opposition leaders who joined a meet of social justice convened by MK Stalin, the chief of Tamil Nadu’s ruling DMK, on Monday. This was the second opposition meet held by the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister, who has emerged as the interlocutor pushing for opposition unity ahead of next year’s general election.
The DMK has denied any political angle to the meet, saying it was trying to take the social justice movement forward. But Trinamool Congress’s Derek O Brien, said, “We should not shy away from the fact that this is a political platform” and urged Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and his Andhra Pradesh counterpart Jagan Mohan Reddy to join in such forums.
“Two or three parties do not want to fight the BJP. It is not the time to be grey. It is the time to be black or white. We have a task… I appeal to BJD that they should come together… Naveen Patnaik got to be here. Also, the YSR Congress Party,” he said.
The second national conference on social justice is being attended by Chief Ministers Ashok Gehlot, Hemant Soren, Former Chief Ministers Farooq Abdullah and Akhilesh Yadav, Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav, Trinamool’s Derek O’Brien, Left leaders Sitaram Yechury and D Raja. Other opposition parties — Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party, Telangana’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party — have also joined in.
This is the first such attempt after the disqualification of Congress’s Rahul Gandhi from parliament, which is seen to have brought the opposition together. Recently the DMK held a rally that brought together many opposition leaders on Chief Minister M K Stalin’s 70th birthday.
This was even as many of the opposition leaders believed that it might not be feasible to provide a pan-India anti-BJP platform and that they should find certain common issues on which they can unite to take on the ruling party. However, the next stumbling block might be deciding what those issues should be.
Many feel that topics on which the Opposition has recently been raising the heat on the BJP, such as “targeting of leaders by misusing agencies”, “attack on autonomous and constitutional institutions” and “silencing of dissent” – under the umbrella campaign of “democracy in danger” – might be powerful slogans inside Parliament and even find resonance in the urban space, but may not be the election winners the parties need.
Leaders of many of these parties argue in private that it is time to stitch together a narrative which is more appealing – or, to put it more directly, can be easily communicated — to voters.
Many say the BJP has to be fought state by state. And therein lies the difficulty, as many of the parties that are seeking an alliance at the national level are bitter rivals in states, or have their own politics which they must cater to.
The silence of Bihar Chief Minister and JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar on Rahul Gandhi’s conviction and disqualification was a significant issue. Nitish lamented some time ago that he was waiting for a signal from the Congress to work towards bringing Opposition parties together, and that its response was far from enthusiastic. However, having donned a squeaky-clean image, and earlier ditched allies like the RJD over conviction in cases, Nitish is typically hoping to ride both boats. The JD(U) chief’s laconic statement regarding the Congress also has to be read in the light of his own national ambitions as an Opposition face.
In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party is flexing its muscles. While a usually dependable Congress ally against the BJP at the Centre, it has indicated that the long-held courtesy of the SP not fielding candidates on the Gandhi family strongholds of Rae Bareli and Amethi is a thing of the past.
In Maharashtra, long-time partner NCP has indicated that its line does not entirely toe the Congress’s on having a JPC probe the Adani issue. Both the AAP and Trinamool Congress are likely to prove even more difficult customers. They are fiercely protective of their turfs in Delhi and West Bengal respectively, where the Congress is their chief rival. The TMC has also refused to come on board the Congress’s Adani platform demanding a JPC.
Recently, when the Congress conveyed a proposal to give a notice in the Lok Sabha for a no-confidence motion against Speaker Om Birla, over the Rahul disqualification issue among others, the Opposition parties clearly turned down the idea. An ambitious idea from within the Congress of Opposition MPs resigning en masse over the Rahul issue saw a blunt dismissal.
Aside from the Congress, Opposition parties have differences among each other. Most, for example, do not agree with the AAP’s stringent attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi over his educational qualifications. A day after Uddhav Thackeray said at an MVA rally in Maharashtra that the PM should just come out with his degree to settle all such talk, the NCP’s Ajit Pawar – who was present at the rally – said issues like inflation, unemployment and law and order were more important than the PM’s degree.
In fact, that “economic distress” should become the cornerstone of an Opposition campaign is what most parties agree on. However, with demonetisation, GST, job losses, migrant misery having all failed to check the BJP, the Opposition is struggling with a language that can connect with the masses.
A possible opportunity for the opposition to remove the BJP from power in the only southern state the saffron party has shown emphatic presence, may be wasted because of the internal conflicts within the Congress, the strongest alternative to the BJP in the state. Its two top leaders, the former chief minister Siddaramaiah and the state party president DK Shivakumar are not mincing words to show their strong dislike for each other.
Conceding that both the leaders are contenders for the top post, Siddaramaiah on Monday said very bluntly that his rival did not stand a chance to be the next chief minister. “I am an aspirant. DK Shivakumar is also an aspirant for the Chief Minister post… the high command won’t give the CM post to DK Shivakumar,” Siddaramaiah said. Shivakumar on the other hand held the same view about Siddaramaiah.
The decades-old rivalry between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar had appeared headed for a pause of some sort as Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra made its way through the state. But in February, the two leaders had held separate bus tours in the northern and southern parts of the state. The fault line over accepting turncoats became apparent when Anand Singh, an MLA who quit the Congress in 2019, met Shivakumar while Siddaramaiah has been adamant about not allowing the turncoats back into the party.
Senior Congress leaders have maintained that the need to put up a united front has been impressed on both leaders. But while they have reached a consensus on most issues, the divide on the candidate for the top job appears too deeply ingrained. It is also affecting candidate selection in the state — since the numbers on each side will influence who gets the Chief Minister’s post.