NEW DELHI, June 8: The southwest monsoon has finally arrived in Kerala on Thursday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced. The onset has occurred four days later than the original forecast date of June 4 and nearly a week after its ‘normal’ onset date of June 1.
“Southwest Monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of south Arabian Sea and some parts of central Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep area, most parts of Kerala, most parts of south Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of Comorin area, Gulf of Mannar and some more parts of southwest, central and northeast Bay of Bengal,” the agency said in a statement.
Apart from “widespread rainfall” over Kerala, other criteria that must be met include windspeed of a minimum strength and at a particular depth in the atmosphere and a degree of clouding that ensures consistent rains, as the monsoon travels into the mainland. “The strength of westerly winds in the lower levels has increased and is about 19 knots. There has been widespread rainfall over Kerala during past 24 hours. Considering all the above satisfied conditions, Southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala today, the 8th June, 2023,” the statement added.
In the days ahead, the monsoon conditions were “favourable” for further advancement into parts of the central Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Kerala, some parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, southwest, central and northeast Bay of Bengal and parts of north-eastern India during next 48 hours, the IMD noted.
The monsoon onset comes even as “very serious cyclonic storm Biparjoy” fomenting in the east-central Arabian Sea continued to move nearly northwards. The IMD says it will intensify and travel further north and in the next three days, gradually turn towards the Yemen and Oman.
Some independent weather experts believe that the cyclone’s presence may hinder the progress of the monsoon with cyclonic winds diverting valuable moisture away from the land and into the sea. The monsoon this year is expected to be 96% of the Long Period Average of 87 cm, or at the lowest end of what the IMD considers ‘normal.’
(Manas Dasgupta)