Manas Dasgupta
NEW DELHI, Mar 29: Karnataka, the only southern state where the BJP is in power, will go to the polls on May 10 to elect 224 members to the State Assembly and decide if it will hold on to its 40-year old tradition of throwing out the ruling party in every election and retain the BJP.
Announcing the election schedule for the Karnataka Assembly on Wednesday the chief election commissioner Rajiv Kumar said the counting of votes would be taken up on May 13. The term of the present Assembly, which was constituted in May, 2018, will expire on May 24.
Karnataka will vote on May 10 to elect a new government and members to its 224-seat assembly, the Election Commission announced on Wednesday. The results will be declared on May 13.
Addressing a news conference, the CEC said the elections have been scheduled on a Wednesday, and not on a Monday or Friday, to encourage greater participation of voters and discourage them from leaving town for a long weekend holiday.
The announcement comes amid a high-stakes political battle between the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress and Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S). The BJP, led by Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, hopes to retain power in the state, fending off allegations of corruption and communal polarisation. The election will also test the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has thrown his weight behind the Karnataka BJP having already made seven trips to the state in the last couple of months.
The voters in Karnataka had delivered a fractured verdict in the 2018 elections allowing the Janata Dal(Secular) of the former prime minister HD Deve Gowda he role of the kingmaker in the state. Though the Congress had polled more votes, more than 38 per cent to the BJP’s 36 per cent, the party could win only 80 seats to the BJP’s 104, and the JD(S) securing 37 seats.
With none of the two major parties getting a clear majority, the Congress and the JD(S) had formed a post-poll coalition government under the chief ministership of the JD(S) leader Kumaraswamy. However, within a year the ministry collapsed after 17 Congress and JD(S) MLAs quit their parties and later joined the BJP. In July 2019, The BJP formed the government with BS Yediyurappa as the Chief Minister. He resigned in July 2021 and was replaced by Mr Bommai.
However, a year later, the electorate voted overwhelmingly in favour of the BJP and Modi in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, giving the party 25 out of the 28 seats in the state. The Karnataka assembly currently has 121 MLAs of the ruling BJP, while Congress has 70 and its ally JD(S) has 30 seats.
Kumar said “we have a number of regulations to make sure free elections will be conducted across the State. There are 171 inter-State check-posts that will have a strict vigil. Money power is an area of concern too in Karnataka. C-Vigil app can be used to inform the EC of any malpractices,” the CEC said.
Kumar said urban apathy was a major concern in Karnataka. While Karnataka polled 72% in 2018, Bangalore constituencies posted around 55% and it continues to come down. EC has reached out to IT firms, colleges, start-ups to increase awareness on voting. “We requested the IT sector in Bengaluru, and an ‘electhon’ will be held to enhance the participation of youth and new voters in the State.”
The BJP has been trying to consolidate its support base among the dominant communities of Lingayats and Vokkaligas, who together account for about 40 per cent of the state’s population. The party has recently increased the reservation for these communities in education and government jobs, scrapping a 4 per cent reservation for Muslims that was introduced by the previous Congress government.
The Congress, on the other hand, has been accusing the BJP of indulging in communal politics and corruption. The party has promised to provide ₹ 3,000 per month to unemployed graduates for two years if it comes to power. The party has also been trying to woo the backward classes, minorities and Dalits, who form a significant chunk of the electorate.
The JD-S, again hoping to emerge as the kingmaker if neither of the two major parties gained a clear majority on their own, has been maintaining an equidistant stance from both the BJP and the Congress, keeping its options open for a post-poll alliance. The party has also been focusing on its core issues of farmers’ welfare and regional development.
The BJP, which has never won a clear majority in Karnataka in the two terms that it has formed governments (2008-13 and 2019-23), is hoping that the Narendra Modi factor can erase the anti-incumbency building up on account of corruption allegations and help it achieve a clear mandate in the polls.
With Karnataka polls typically being about the caste equations in the state, the BJP has attempted social engineering in order to ensure the party has an upper hand while retaining the support of the dominant Lingayat community, which decides nearly 90 seats.
One of the key factors for the BJP is the secondary role it has given to Yediyurappa (80), who was forced to step down as chief minister by the party in 2021 over his age, even as corruption allegations against his government began surfacing.
In 2013, when Yediyurappa moved away from the BJP and formed the Karnataka Janata Party after he was forced to step down as chief minister on charges of corruption and was arrested by the Karnataka Lokayukta police, the BJP suffered a major loss and facilitated a Congress win.
The BJP has also attempted to sow seeds of Hindutva by raising various divisive issues through frontal groups over the past year through social media and alternative communication channels, which have had limited success, especially in core groups. The BJP is attempting to get a clear majority by also creating the impression that it is not forming tacit alliances with regional parties like the JD(S) unlike in 2018.
Meanwhile, the former Congress president Rahul Gandhi has decided to again begin his Karnataka poll campaign from Kolar, the venue where in the 2018 elections he had remarked about Modi’s surname that led to his conviction for two years and subsequent disqualification as an MP. In what is seen as a mark of defiance, the April 5 rally will be held in Kolar. “Rahul Gandhi will return to Kolar and begin his Satyameva Jayate Rally. We had requested him to begin the election yatra from here. Where he had made this statement, and which the BJP condemned his statement, he will begin his mega rally from here,” said state party chief DK Shivakumar.