Manas Dasgupta
NEW DELHI, Nov 20: Even though the exit polls found wanting in predicting election outcomes in the recent elections, the BJP seems to have advantage in both Maharashtra and Jharkhand with most of the exit polls predicting victory of the BJP-led alliances amidst close fights among the rivals.
Five of the nine exit polls in Maharashtra have predicted the BJP-led three party “Mahayuti” alliance to retain power while in Jharkhand three of the five exit polls believes the BJP-led NDA could oust the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led grand alliance to come to power in the state.
The exit polls were all in the air as the polling ended in all the 288 constituencies in Maharashtra and 43 of the 81 seats in the second phase polling in Jharkhand. An average of all eight gave the BJP-led alliance an average of 150 of 288 Assembly seats, with the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi given only 125 and non-aligned parties and independents 13.
Three exit polls predict a hung Assembly; i.e., they believe neither alliance will be able to secure a clear-enough advantage to form the next government, at least without bargaining, jostling and, most likely, support from smaller parties and/or independents. A ninth has bucked the trend entirely, giving the MVA a massive win.
The Matrize, Chanakya Strategies, Times Now-JVC, Poll Diary, and Peoples Pulse, exit polls give the Mahayuti – Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena-Nationalist Congress Party – 122-195 seats. Matrize has given the Mahayuti between 150 and 170 seats, Peoples Pulse between 175 and 195 seats, Chanakya Strategies between 152 and 160, and Times Now-JVC 150-167. Poll Diary is the least certain of these five, giving it between 122 and 186 seats, which translates into an average of 152.
The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi – the Congress and the Sena and NCP factions of Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar – will get only 69 to 138, according to these five exit polls. However, three other polls – P-Marq, Dainik Bhaskar, and the Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra – believe neither the Mahayuti nor the MVA may secure enough for an outright win.
Electoral Edge says the Maha Vikas Aghadi will return to power on the back of a crushing win, sweeping 150 seats and leaving its rival alliance just 118. Non-aligned (at this stage) parties and independent candidates, which could play a significant role in the event of a hung Assembly, have been given an average score of 12 seats. That may not sound like much but given how tight the margins could be (according to P-Marq, Dainik Bhaskar, and the Lokshahi Marathi-Rudra) they could emerge as ‘king-makers’.
The 2019 Maharashtra election resulted in a thumping win for the BJP and (then undivided) Sena; the saffron party won 105 seats (down 17 from 2014) and its ally 56 (down seven).
However, two long-time allies fell out, quite spectacularly, in the following days after they failed to agree a power-sharing deal. Mr Thackeray then led his Sena into a surprise alliance with the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (then also undivided) to shut out a furious BJP. Much to the surprise of many, the ruling tripartite alliance lasted for nearly three years despite the divergent political beliefs and ideologies of the Sena and the Congress-NCP.
Eventually, it was an internal rebellion led by Sena leader Eknath Shinde that ousted the MVA government. Mr Shinde led Sena lawmakers into a deal with the BJP, forcing Mr Thackeray to resign and allowing himself to be named as the new Chief Minister. The NCP split a year later in a near-identical process that saw Ajit Pawar and lawmakers loyal to him joining the BJP-Shinde Sena, and he then became a Deputy Chief Minister.
Since then, Maharashtra politics has been roiled in controversy that extended to the Supreme Court, which heard petitions and cross-petitions on disqualification of MLAs and, in the build-up to this election, pleas on which Sena and NCP faction is the ‘real’ one.
In Jharkhand, the BJP and its allies will likely emerge victorious in the assembly election, three exit polls said. One exit poll forecast a win by the alliance led by Chief Minister Hemant Soren’s JMM. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is predicted to win 42-47 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) may get 25-30 seats in the 81-seat assembly, according to an exit poll by Matrize. Another exit poll by Peoples Pulse forecast the NDA winning 44-53 seats, giving 25-37 seats to the INDIA bloc. The exit poll by Times Now-JVC predicted 40-44 seats for the NDA, and 30-40 for the Grand Alliance. The Axis My India exit poll gave the JMM-led alliance 53 seats and the NDA 25 seats.
The BJP contested on 68 seats, All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) 10 seats, Janata Dal (United) 2 seats, and the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) 1 seat. Their rival Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) of Chief Minister Hemant Soren fought in 41 seats, Congress 30 seats, Rashtriya Janata Dal 6 seats, and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) 4 seats.