Manas Dasgupta
NEW DELHI, June 14: Taking steps on war-footing, the Gujarat government has shifted more than 47,000 people from vulnerable areas to safer locations in view of the likely landfall of severe cyclonic storm “Biparjoy” around Jakhau port in Kutch by Thursday evening.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) as issued a red alert for coastal districts of Kutch and Saurashtra where strong winds and heavy rains will lash when the storm makes a landfall. Triggered by the cyclone the rainfall is also expected in Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, New Delhi and Uttar Pradesh in the next four days, weather forecasting agency Skymet said. Cyclone Biparjoy, after making landfall, will lose its intensity and move as a depression over south-southwest Rajasthan before moving northeast.
“By 18-19 June, the depression will be closer to Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and northwest Uttar Pradesh. These places will receive light to moderate rain and wind speed is expected to be 30-40 km per hour,” a Skymet official said.
“Whenever a cyclone is formed in the Bay of Bengal, it has the tendency to go in the northwest direction, leading to increased rain activity in the Indian mainland on the east coast,” he said. “However, weather systems over the Arabian Sea, usually move towards Yemen and Oman. This cyclonic storm, however, will move towards Pakistan and the west coast of India, leading to deficient rain in the central and eastern parts of the country. Over the next two weeks, we do not expect much rain over those parts. Coastal areas of south India, however, will experience rainfall.”
With the cyclone barrelling towards the Gujarat coast, parts of the Saurashtra-Kutch region received heavy rains accompanied by strong winds. Nine talukas in Devbhumi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Junagadh, Porbandar and Rajkot districts received more than 50 mm of rainfall in the 24 hours ending on Wednesday morning. The Gujarat Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel held a review meeting at the State Emergency Operation Centre in the state capital city of Gandhinagar regarding the preparedness for cyclone Biparjoy.
As per the details, the cyclone is expected to move nearly north-north-eastwards and cross Saurashtra and Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coasts between Mandvi (Gujarat) and Karachi (Pakistan) near Jakhau Port (Gujarat) by Thursday evening as a very severe cyclonic storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 125-135 km per hour gusting to 150 km per hour.
The Met Department has predicted extremely heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds in coastal parts of the Saurashtra-Kutch region, especially in the districts of Kutch, Porbandar and Devbhumi Dwarka. The IMD stated that the intensity of rainfall would increase as the cyclone approaches the Gujarat coast on June 15.
The State authorities have deployed 18 teams of NDRF and 12 teams of SDRF in the coastal districts. Additionally; BSF, Army and Navy are also involved in the efforts to mitigate the damages the cyclone is likely to cause in wake of its landfall.
In view of the cyclone, 69 trains have been cancelled, 33 trains have been short-terminated, while 27 trains short-originated as a precautionary measure, in view of safety of passengers, CPRO Western Railways said. Since all ports have been shut, more than 10,000 trucks are stranded in Kutch.
The IMD said “Biparjoy” is now completely detached from the monsoonal flow and will not adversely impact the advance of the rain-bearing system or its performance. The IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the cyclone, however, helped the monsoon advance over southern parts of the peninsula by increasing the cross-equatorial flow over the Arabian Sea. “Now, it is completely detached from the monsoonal flow. We do not expect any large-scale impact either on the monsoon advance or its performance,” he said.
Scientists had earlier said the cyclone pulled the moisture and convection, impacting the intensity of the monsoon and delaying its onset over Kerala. Meteorologists had said further progress of the monsoon beyond southern parts of the peninsula will happen after the cyclone degenerates. The monsoon hit India on June 8 with its onset over Kerala, a week later than normal.
India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD had earlier said. El Nino, which is the warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America, is generally associated with the weakening of monsoon winds and dry weather in India. The El Nino conditions this year follow three consecutive La Nina years. La Nina, which is the opposite of El Nino, typically brings good rainfall during the monsoon season.
Northwest India is expected to see normal to below-normal rainfall. East and northeast, central, and south peninsula are expected to receive normal rainfall at 94-106 per cent of the long-period average. Rainfall less than 90 per cent of the long-period average is considered ‘deficient’, between 90 per cent and 95 per cent is ‘below normal’, between 105 per cent and 110 per cent is ‘above normal’ and more than 100 per cent is ‘excess’ precipitation.